Pope Francis received the last rites before passing away Monday Morning, just hours ago, and already, the discussion has turned to who will become the new holy emissary, with several leading contenders emerging.
The next leader of the Roman Catholic Church may hail from Africa, Italy, Sri Lanka, or even the United States, but one theme is shared by all: he will almost certainly push the church’s leadership back toward the ideological center, experts say.
Over his 12-year reign, Pope Francis became synonymous with progressivism within Christianity, welcoming same sex couples to receive communion and suppressing the traditional Latin Mass in moves that rankled conservatives throughout the church.
“Whoever is elected will be of a centrally conservative disposition; after 12 years of Pope Francis ‘stirring things up,’” said Serenhedd James, editor of Britain’s Catholic Herald magazine. “I think the cardinals will want someone who will take a different, calmer approach.”
More than 100 cardinals from around the globe will gather to select a new pope in a process that closely resembles scenes from the hit 2024 film “Conclave,” though the auspices will be much different.
There, cardinals will most likely seek “a renewed clarity of doctrine” for the church and a “more internal” focus on its governance, said Rev. Patrick Mary Briscoe, editor of Our Sunday Visitor magazine.
Church rules state that up to 138 “princes of the Church,” including 120 cardinals under the age of 80, may arrive at the Vatican within 20 days of the pope’s passing and begin a painstaking series of long days deliberating about his successor. Four daily ballots will take place; after 30 ballots, only the top two finishers will be allowed to proceed, and whomever gets a two-thirds majority will become the next pope.
Like the character in “Conclave” played by actor Ralph Fiennes, Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, 91, will serve as “dean” of the college after being appointed by Pope Francis before his death. He may have a “behind-the-scenes influence,” given his relationships with cardinals both old and new, Briscoe explained.
Websites maintained by Vatican watchers Gaetano Masciullo and Vaticanists Edward Pentin and Diane Montagna of the College of Cardinals Report list contenders from a “neo-modernist” adherent to more traditionally conservative leaders in the vein of Pope Benedict XVI, who suddenly resigned in 2013.
Those men are:
Cardinal Luis Tagle, 67, who hails from the Philippines and is believed to be a protégé of Francis. Masciullo writes that Tagle “has expressed very ‘open’ opinions on issues such as Communion for non-sacramentally married couples and homosexuality, suggesting that universal moral principles may ‘not apply in all situations.’”
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, an Italian with some conservative positions but who has also negotiated peace treaties between the church and the Chinese communist government. He is among those candidates with a “high chance” of being elected, given his existing global influence.
Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, of France, is reportedly Francis’s “favorite” to succeed him. He is both scholarly and affable, Masciullo writes, and is “particularly appreciated” by liberal ecclesiastics for his approach to the biblical doctrine.
Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk, 71, is both a physician and theologian who has been known to stick by church opinions even when unpopular. He opposes blessings for same sex couples as well as gender reassignment surgery and therapy. The Dutch cardinal also does not approve of the furtherance of female church leaders, a particular cause of liberal Catholics.
Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, 77, is the archbishop of Colombo, Sri Lanka with a compelling story — someone who could elevate Catholicism in Asia and also bridge divides between the camps of Francis and Benedict. Masciullo writes that Ranjith is believed to be “perfectly aligned with Benedict XVI” in values while also giving great attention to the poor and downtrodden, a special focus for Pope Francis.
Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79, hails from Guinea and has been a vocal opponent of Pope Francis’s ambivalence toward same sex participation in Catholic proceedings. He has pushed for a return to the traditional Latin Mass as a way of bringing disparate corners of the church back together under a unified form of Mass.
Technically, any Catholic man who has been baptized may be elected pope, though Kean University history professor Christopher Bellitto tells the NY Post that the “odds of someone other than a cardinal being elected … are lower than a snowball’s chance in hell.”
The last time an outside was selected was in 1378, and “that started the great western schism when we had two and then three popes until 1417.”
Earlier, in 1294, Bellitto said, “They got Celestine V, who was the pope who resigned, and Dante put him at the doorway of hell” in the Italian poet’s classic “Inferno.”