A prominent Democrat in the U.S. House unexpectedly announced that he will be finishing out his term and not seeking reelection after being diagnosed with cancer, placing the party’s chances of regaining control of the chamber in further jeopardy.
Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA), 75, confirmed in a letter to supporters that he was diagnosed six months ago and ever since has grappled with the possibility of endangering Democrats’ ability to win back control of Congress.
“Your outpouring of love and support has given me strength in my fights – both against cancer and in our collective defense of democracy,” he wrote in a letter addressed to “friends.”
“When I announced my diagnosis six months ago, I promised transparency. After grueling treatments, we’ve learned that the cancer, while initially beaten back, has now returned. I’ll do everything possible to continue to represent you and thank you for your grace,” he went on. “The sun is setting on my time in public service, and this will be my last term in Congress. I will be stepping back as Ranking Member of the Oversight Committee.”
The seat may not be fertile ground for a pickup, however. Cook Political Reports ranks Virginia’s 11th Congressional District as D+18, and Connolly has consistently garnered two-thirds of the vote within Fairfax County, including the northern suburbs of Washington, D.C.
To be sure, Virginia Republicans under Gov. Glenn Youngkin have experienced a resurgence since the pandemic and will most likely put up a competitive candidate, forcing the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to expend precious resources to keep a seat that, under Connolly, might not have drawn much interest.
The exodus of fired federal workers may also be a factor in the race. Terminations by the Trump administration have caused home sales in the D.C. metro area to skyrocket as the ranks of the unemployed swelled and longtime bureaucrats began to relocate. Those demographic changes may play into a Republican candidate’s favor.
Election forecasters are split on their predictions about which party will control the House after 2026. Generic ballot tests tend to favor Democratic candidates, but 270 to Win also predicts that Republicans will enjoy 208 reliably red pickups compared to Democrats’ 205, with the remaining 22 seats too close to call.
Retirement season has claimed other Democratic veterans as well. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), 80, will be vacating her seat following her 15th term rather than beat back a 26-year-old primary challenger. The same dynamic is at play in San Francisco, where Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is mulling whether to soldier on against a former aide to socialist “Squad” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).
Others are not ready to call it quits but instead try their luck at moving up the ladder of power. Reps. Angie Craig (D-MN) is seriously considering a run to fill Minnesota’s open Senate seat next year, while Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-MI) is doing the same following an announcement by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) that he will be retiring, Punchbowl News reported.